Five Notes for Today’s Games
1. Starting Pitchers- It’s another tough day to navigate safely in regards to pitching. I like the matchups of Tim Lincecum RHP SF vs OAK at home against a bottom 3 RHP-hitting team and Lance Lynn RHP STL vs KC at home against a struggling Royals squad. My greatest risk/reward play of the day will be Jered Weaver RHP LAA vs LAD. Weaver is returning from a DL without a rehab stint. The way I see that is the Angels are either extremely desperate to get decent pitching or they are seeing some nice things in Weaver’s bullpen sessions. He pitched a sim game where he had 9 Ks through 5 2/3 IP and gave up 1 earned run. That doesn’t mean a whole lot, but it helps the validity of my argument. His value is depressed several places, and the Dodgers aren’t fielding the best team these days. Now as far as cheap pitchers go, I think David Phelps RHP NYY vs NYM draws a decent matchup. The Mets are still a mess on the offensive side over the last month especially certain LHB. I also think Tyler Chatwood RHP COL deserves attention because of his price and the fact that he’ll face the Astros who lead the league in strikeouts and are bottom 3 in AVG and OPS to opposing RHP. Beware of the IP for Phelps and Chatwood, but I think they might be able to compensate with some Ks and Ws.
2. Stud Hitters- Buster Posey C SF (.935 OPS vs LHP), Joey Votto 1B CIN (.380 v RHP and power is ticking upwards), Freddie Freeman 1B ATL (somebody on the Braves is going to hammer E. Rogers. My bet is on Freeman. He always seems to hit better when Medlen is pitching), Robinson Cano 2B NYY (9 HR and .331 AVG vs. RHP, facing Jeremy Hefner who is giving up .338 AVG/.912 OPS to LHB), Howie Kendrick 2B LAA (.344 AVG vs LHP), Jean Segura SS MIL (if this game is played, Segura is a must-start. Make sure to check the weather 70 percent rain chance), Didi Gregorius SS ARI (.406 AVG vs RHP), Eric Chavez 3B ARI (not a believer in RHP Justin Grimm and Chavez eats rookie RHP for brunch), Pablo Sandoval 3B SF (.333 AVG vs LHP but don’t expect HRs), Ryan Braun OF MIL (see Segura’s comments), Carlos Beltran OF STL (8 of 11 HRs have come against RHP), Mike Trout OF LAA (only a matter a time before he heats up vs LHP and Capuano should give him some nice 88 MPH meat to drive), Michael Morse OF SEA (.339 AVG and 5 HRs vs LHP), and Carlos Gonzalez OF COL (taking reverse splits to a new level with a .371 AVG and 1.054 OPS vs LHP this year).
3.Value Hitters- Miguel Montero C ARI (2 straight games with XBH and minimum salary on FD 2,200), Brian McCann C ATL (I could see the Braves resting him today, but if not he’s killing RHP this year and priced 3,400 on DK and 3,400 on FD, both reasonable), A.J. Pierzynski C TEX (had to throw him in with his success vs RHP), Matt Adams 1B STL (due to do something), Lyle Overbay 1B NYY (can’t believe I’m reccommending him, but Overbay in only 3,400 on DK and has 7 HRs with a .292 AVG vs RHP. Plus, Hefner is bad against LHB) Ramiro Pena SS/3B (.346 AVG/.973 OPS vs RHP), Kendrys Morales 1B/OF SEA (so hot for a 3,300 OF on DK and .354 AVG 1.032 OPS vs LHP), Ben Zobrist 2B/OF TB (only 3,200 on FD… I really just think he’s due for something special).
4. Stack ‘em Up- Red Sox @ RHP Kyle Kendrick (BOS is no 1 in MLB in OPS v RHP), Yankees vs RHP Jeremy Hefner (especially the Yankee LHB), Braves vs RHP Esmil Rogers (Rogers hasn’t started a game since 2011. That season he had a 7.05 ERA and a .320 BAA), Angels vs LHP Chris Capuano (I’m not buying what we saw last start out of Cap and the Angels are due to start hitting better vs LHP) and Cardinals vs RHP Luis Mendoza.
5. The Due Factor- So I am now 0-6 for my long-shot HR predictions. I’m actually getting a little discouraged. I guess it just proves how unpredictable baseball can be on a daily basis. Today is a new day, and we will treat it as such. Matt Adams 1B STL has not hit an extra base hit in the month of May. Sure, his playing time has been gashed, but he should find facing RHP Luis Mendoza a more favorable matchup if Adams draws another start. Mendoza is allowing a .490 SLG to LHB, and Adams is a masher that will generally favor power-hitting versus RHP. Matt Adams is DUE for an extra base hit and a HR today if he draws the start. Ben Zobrist 2B/OF TB has hit safely in 10 of his last 11 games but hasn’t hit a HR since May 1. Ben Zobrist is DUE to go deep today.