Five Notes for Today’s Games
1. Clayton Kershaw LHP LAD @ MIL should highlight any list these days. He has record setting stuff these days, and we saw how pathetic the Brewers were yesterday versus a much, much worse LHP. My middle tier is highlighted by Johnny Cueto RHP CIN @ NYM fresh off the DL, Jon Lester LHP BOS @ CWS with the White Sox being worst in the league at HRs vs LHP and bottom half in AVG and Shelby Miller RHP STL @ SD continuing to cruise along. Somehow I totally missed that Josh Lindblom RHP TEX vs OAK was turned from a reliever into a starter. Lindblom fared well in his PCL tune-up 2.08 ERA over 43.1 innings with 33 Ks. The A’s are in the bottom 4 against RHP (.230 AVG) so Lindblom might be a decent gamble today at a dirt cheap price. I only worry about his innings limit. I’d avoid Jeremy Guthrie, CC Sabathia, Cole Hamels, and Patrick Corbin.
2. Stud Hitters- Joe Mauer C MIN, Buster Posey C SF, Adam LaRoche 1B WAS, Billy Butler 1B KC, David Ortiz 1B BOS, Robinson Cano 2B NYY, Chase Utley 2B PHI, Marco Scutaro 2B SF, Pablo Sandoval 3B SF, Jimmy Rollins SS PHI, Bryce Harper OF WAS (if he plays), Jason Heyward OF ATL, Shin-Soo Choo OF CIN, and Curtis Granderson OF NYY.
3. Value Hitters- Salvador Perez C KC, Matt Adams 1B STL (still way too cheap for potential if he plays), Matt Carpenter 2B/3B STL (only 3,500 on DraftKings), Elliot Johnson 2B/SS, KC, David Freese 3B STL (heating up and still cheap), Hunter Pence OF SF, Dayan Viciedo OF CHW, and Marcell Ozuna OF MIA.
4. Stack ‘em up- Honestly, I don’t know who’s going to score the most or if one team will score a ton and the other very little, but the Nationals @ Giants game looks like a high scoring game to me. Vegas doesn’t agree with the o/u set at 8 runs scored. I would still consider stacking both the Nationals @ RHP Ryan Vogelsong and the Giants vs LHP Zach Duke. Also, stack Rangers vs RHP Bartolo Colon, Reds @ RHP Shaun Marcum, Phillies @ RHP Alex Sanabia, and Yankees @ RHP Freddy Garcia.
5. The Due Factor- This is my favorite part of my column these days, and I feel honored that it continues to drive my success as a prognosticator for Daily Fantasy Baseball. With that said, I think Matt Kemp OF LAD is DUE to hit a home run today. I know what you’re thinking. Here’s another daily fantasy guy trying to call the Kemp homer. But I haven’t advised playing Kemp much if at all this season, and I take my home run call very seriously. I have also not attempted to call a Kemp home run to this point. We all know Kemp is better than just 1 HR through May 20 so that part is easy. He’ll be playing in Miller Park (highest HR park factor in 2013- 2.129) against RHP Yovani Gallardo who has pitched significantly worse to righties than left-handed batters. Kemp has struggled against right-handed pitching this year but has that lone HR versus a RHP in an away ballpark. So add me to the long list of analysts trying to pick when Kemp will go yard again. We’ll see if I can be right which I can say is in my favor. Robinson Cano 2B NYY is only 2 for 15 with no extra base hits in his career versus RHP Freddy Garcia. Cano is coming off of a 2 HR game so I would say he’ll carry over that success. Cano is DUE to hit his first extra base hit off of Freddy Garcia. Marcel Ozuna OF MIA is riding a 5 game hit streak but hasn’t had more than one hit in any of those games. Ozuna is also hitting .429 versus LHP and his lone HR of the season came against the Philly LHP Cole Hamels. Marcel Ozuna is DUE to have a multi-hit game.