5 Notes For Today’s Games
1. Start Alexi Ogando RHP TEX @ HOU, Alex Cobb RHP TB vs SD, Phil Hughes RHP NYY @ KC, and possibly Jon Lester LHP BOS vs TOR. I would avoid Max Scherzer, Jeff Samardzija, and Ian Kennedy. I could see the argument for Shelby Miller, Jose Fernandez, Matt Magill, Matt Cain, Tim Hudson, and Ross Detwiler, but all of these pitchers come with more risk than I want to accept. If you are playing in a tourney and want to differentiate your lineup, I like what Matt Cain might be able to do against the Braves. I wouldn’t use him personally, but it’s no secret that the Braves strike out a ton. Cain has settled a bit lately, but this is still going to be a tough matchup for him to keep runs off the board. If you are going cheap, I like Fernandez over Magill. Fernandez has more skill otherwise the matchup is pretty even. When in doubt, draft skill.
2. Stud Hitters- Robinson Cano 2B NYY (Cano is streaky HR yesterday, gets RHP Wade Davis), Prince Fielder 1B DET (love him a lot today against RHP Corey Kluber), David Ortiz 1B BOS (4 HRs in 5 hits vs Ramon Ortiz), Nelson Cruz OF TEX (loves LHP and gets a bad one in Dallas Keuchel), Matt Carpenter 2B/3B (facing RHP Jon Garland), Josh Hamilton OF LAA (2 HRs in past two games and will face RHP Dylan Axelrod. He could be heating up), Jason Kubel OF ARI (PHI RHP Tyler Cloyd isn’t good), and Jacoby Ellsbury OF BOS (must play if price is right) . Make sure to check the “Due” section and stack sections for other possible hitters. Building a line-up has a lot of opportunity cost to it. Sometimes you have to take the lesser of two great matchups to better another position. For example, I love all the RHB on the Rangers today. If you have a full OF and need a 2B or 3B, feel free to use Ian Kinsler or Adrian Beltre. Both have great match-ups based on my stack recommendation.
3. Value Hitters- Jeff Baker 1B/OF TEX(Facing a bad LHP Dallas Keuchel and kills all lefties), Matt Adams 1B STL(speculating the start but cheap. Gets RHP Jon Garland), DiDi Gregorius SS ARI(still cheap most places and raking, Finally gets a bad RHP Tyler Cloyd), Oswaldo Arcia OF MIN (still super cheap some places), Don Kelly 3B/OF DET (dirt cheap LHB get bad RHP Corey Kluber and has positional flexibility on DraftKings), Rob Brantly C MIA (not going to power you to victory but could get a couple hits) and Cody Ransom 3B/SS CHC (his price makes him valuable).
4. Stack- Texas Rangers @ LHP Dallas Keuchel, Detroit Tigers vs RHP Corey Kluber, Red Sox vs RHP Ramon Ortiz, St. Louis Cardinals vs RHP Jon Garland, and Arizona Diamondbacks vs RHP Tyler Cloyd.
5. **Special** Due Factor Home Run Edition- Joe Mauer C MIN has not hit a home run since April 15th but has an 8 game hitting streak rolling. During that streak Mauer has 6 extra base hits. Joe Mauer is DUE to hit a home run today versus somebody (Orioles SP Jason Hammel). David Wright 3B NYM has not a home run off of a lefty since May 1 in which he went yard oddly enough against reverse-splits LeBlanc. LHP Wandy Rodriguez has given up 10 runs in his last nine innings. David Wright is DUE to go deep versus Wandy Rodriguez today. Joey Votto 1B CIN has not hit a home run since April 25 but has hit safely in 10 out of his last 11 games. During those games, Votto has racked up 7 extra base hits. Joey Votto is DUE to go deep today off of RHP Yovani Gallardo (weather permitting). Jose Bautista OF TOR has not hit a home run in 11 games but has hit safely in 7 of his last 8 (3 xbh). He’ll face a tougher lefty in Jon Lester, but Bautista has hit 4 HRs off of Lester in 47 ABs. Jose Bautista is DUE to blast off today. Here’s my wild card play! Welington Castillo C CHC has an all-or-nothing type swing. He’s hitting .308 which means he is getting more all than nothing. However, Castillo has only managed to go deep once this year. Castillo has hit safely 8 out of his last 9 games but has struggled versus LHP this year (.233 AVG). Previous to this year Castillo had a .415 AVG and 1.060 OPS vs LHP in 53 ABs. So he has had success. Detwiler has given up all 3 of his HRA to LHB. Call me crazy, but I think Welington Castillo is DUE to go deep today. Just make sure that he is in the lineup before using.