Five Notes for Today’s Games
1. Starting Pitchers- It’s really hard not to recommend A.J Burnett RHP PIT @ ATL. Burnett hasn’t given up more than 3 earned runs in any of his 12 starts in 2013. As a Braves fan I am well aware of their propensity to strike out. So there is all kinds of upside with this play, and I will probably be rostering Burnett today because of lack of other viable options. But the Braves team could present some problems for Burnett if they run a lefty heavy lineup. This pick isn’t as slam dunk as it looks at first glance. Following up on this PIT/ATL game, I think Kris Medlen RHP ATL vs PIT has an equally alluring matchup against the Pirates. Vegas has the O/U at 7, lowest of all the games today. I tend to agree that this game will probably be low scoring. Eric Stults LHP SD @ LAD is cheap most places, and this Dodger lineup is pretty decimated by injury still. Stults struck out 12 Mariners his last time out. The other 2 starts vs the Dodgers by Stults this year were dictated by the performance of Carl Crawford who will be absent from today’s lineup. Marco Estrada RHP MIL vs OAK is like a box of chocolates you never know what you are going to get, but I think he has some decent upside today vs. the Athletics. Estrada has a 3.46 ERA at home this season with 31 Ks in 26.1 IP. The A’s are bottom 5 in the Majors in AVG and HRs vs RHP. Lastly, Lance Lynn RHP STL vs ARI is the best but more expensive play today. Without Chavez, the D’backs LHB don’t intimidate, and if Lynn can navigate around Goldschmidt, he could have a might nice game.
2. All Stud Hitters team- Jason Castro C HOU (I’m starting to buy in a bit on this Houston catcher rotation and Castro has a .920 OPS vs RHP and Blanton is an extraordinarily bad RHP), Joey Votto 1B CIN (facing a RHP at home), Jean Segura SS MIL (.367 AVG vs LHP with a .998 OPS), Howie Kendrick 2B LAA(feasts on LHP .327 AVG and .982 OPS), Chase Headley 3B SD (always has hit better as LHB and will face a bad RHP. Mired in a bad slump but is still hitting .255 vs RHP), Carlos Gonzalez OF COL (must start everyday right now), Shin-Soo Choo OF CIN (10 HRs .343 AVG vs RHP, facing RHP Chatwood at home), Carlos Gomez OF MIL (9 of 10 HRs have come at home, .338 AVG vs LHP)
3. All Value Hitters team- Brian McCann C ATL (only 3,400 on DK), Kendrys Morales 1B/OF SEA (extremely dangerous vs LHP .361 AVG, only 3,500 on DK), Didi Gregorius SS ARI (still playing well, loves facing RHP and is dirt cheap once again 3,300 on DK), Nick Franklin 2B SEA (still 2K on DK, must start there and 2,500 on FD), Matt Dominguez 3B HOU (Blanton is awful and Dominguez has 4 HRs in last 10 games, 3,200 on DK), Dayan Viciedo OF CHW (see due factor), Domonic Brown OF PHI (nobody hotter right now, 13 HRs in last 112 ABs only 3,800 0n DK), and Marcell Ozuna OF MIA (still batting in the middle of the order, not as good vs RHP but still .317 AVG and .792 OPS, hitting .395 over last 10 games, only 3,400 on DK and 3,ooo on FD).
4. Stack ‘em Up- Brewers vs LHP Tommy Milone, Reds vs RHP Tyler Chatwood… then the options get worse… Padres @ RHP Stephen Fife, Astros @ RHP Joe Blanton, and Indians @ LHP Andy Pettitte.
5. The Due Factor- Maybe I should stop doing the “Due Factor”. I’m 0 for my last 8 I believe, but who’s keeping track? I think I have a good one today, but that’s always the case. Dayan Viciedo OF CHW is 1 for his last 21. However, he has a superb matchup today. Even with the slump, Viciedo is hitting .357 vs LHP this year which is right in line with career norms (.356 v LHP). He’ll face LHP Joe Saunders who is not only a lefty but is also giving up a .328 AVG and .513 SLG to RHB. The only worrisome point is that Saunders has been much better at home than on the road, and this game will be in Seattle. Viciedo has yet to hit a HR off of a LHP, and that will change today because he is DUE.