Five Notes for Today’s Games
**Watch the weather radar escpially in Boston and Chicago, both these games have increasing chances of storms**
1. Starting Pitchers
- I can’t blame if you were to want to use Yu Darvish RHP TEX @ NYY or Chris Sale LHP CWS vs NYM. They have been dominant and consistent. They also have massive price tags. I would argue there are some cheaper options out there today.
- Jeff Locke LHP PIT @ SEA- Locke has been pitching a bit over his head, but he has also shown a lot of poise and a plus, plus slider. Locke hasn’t given up a run in his last two starts and hasn’t given up more than 3 earned runs since April 18. Seattle is bottom 5 in MLB in AVG and OPS vs LHP. Really the only weapons they have against lefties are hurt or slumping. Don’t be surprised to see Locke put in another quality start and probably a W today.
- Jose Fernandez RHP MIA vs MIN- Normally, I’m not that into Home/Away splits but the Cuban, Fernandez, has an eye opening difference in his performance near his home as opposed to on the road. At home, Fernandez has a 1.75 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and a BAA of .186. Away from Miami, Fernandez ERA balloons to 4.12 and WHIP rises a bit to 1.19. The thing I like most about Fernandez is that his tight, backdoor curve is almost more devastating to LHB than RHB. So the Twins will not have an advantage if they lefty-load today. I’m in on Fernandez on any two pitcher sites.
- Kris Medlen RHP ATL @ KC- You never know which Medlen you are going to get most nights, but Medlen has done a great job reducing his numbers as the season has progressed. He was roughed up by the Giants his last time out, but I don’t think Medlen will have much of a problem with the lowly bats out in Kansas City. KC is bottom 3 in OPS vs RHP. Maybe Kris isn’t the safest option, but he has a higher K ceiling than Locke.
- Here’s where today gets tricky. There are so many viable starting pitcher options, it is going to be difficult to pin down which one is going to be the best value. I also like Zach Wheeler RHP NYM @ CWS. Wheeler has nasty stuff as evidenced by his last start, but he is also having trouble locating that nastiness. He’s minimum salary some places and would be the perfect compliment to a Tigers stack on Draft Kings. The other two options you will be staring at are mid-tier guys with a slight risk for a blow-up start: Kyle Lohse RHP MIL vs CHC and Jake Westbrook RHP STL @ HOU. Westbrook might actually strike some batters out since he’ll get to face the Astros. Lohse has only given up 1 earned run in each of his last three starts, and he’ll face the Cubs who field a barely competitive lineup on a nightly basis. I don’t know if I will use either of these two, but they should be mentioned.
2. Stud Hitters
- Jonathan Lucroy C MIL- hitting .395 over last 10 games and .371 over his last 27 games. I like this matchup vs Edwin Jackson at home
- David Ortiz 1B BOS- he’s going deep today. Boomstick.
- Matt Carpenter 2B/3B STL- continues to hit well, especially RHP. Multi-hit games in 3 of last 4
- Miguel Cabrera 3B DET- **must start** Cabrera is hitting .462 AVG and 1.370 OPS vs LHP and faces the meat-throwing LHP C.J. Wilson
- Hanley Ramirez SS LAD – **must start** HanRam has struggled against LHP in a very small sample size this year, but he is seeing the ball really well and even has 3 HRs in his current 7 game hit streak.
- Jhonny Peralta SS DET- .406 AVG vs LHP
- Yasiel Puig OF LAD- hitting .565 AVG with a 1.609 OPS vs LHP in just 23 ABs. It is worth noting that he will face the horrible LHP Mike Kickham
- Austin Jackson OF DET- .423 AVG over last 10 games. Look for a steal or two if Iannetta is behind the plate.
- Andrew McCutchen OF PIT- hit safely in last four and finally gets a soft-tossing LHP in Joe Saunders
- Carlos Gonzalez OF COL- Dempster has 12 HRs in his last 10 games and I think we’ll see CarGo add to that total.
3. Value Hitters
- Carlos Ruiz C PHI- hitting .375 AVG over last 10 games, only 3,300 on DK
- Mike Zunino C SEA- don’t love the matchup vs LHP Locke, but do love the 2,000 price tag for stacks
- Matt Adams 1B STL- I feel like there may be an Adams Sighting today, facing a RHP would do well for his cheap price tags most place. Somebody free Matt Adams from the Cardinals
- Ben Zobrist 2B/OF TB- 3,800 price tag on DK makes him a viable play vs LHP Mark Buerhle
- Anthony Rendon 3B WAS- 3 multi-hit games in last 4
- Zack Cozart SS CIN- 3,2oo on DK, facing LHP Tommy Milone.
- Wil Myers OF TB- still cheap enough at 3,600 on DK, facing a LHP
- Jay Bruce OF CIN- he’s smashing LHP, 7 HRs and .282 AVG in 103 ABs
- Josh Reddick OF OAK- perfect opportunity for XBH today vs RHP Bronson Arroyo
4. Stack ‘em Up- Dodgers vs LHP Mike Kickham, Tigers vs LHP C.J. Wilson, Braves @ RHP Ervin Santana, Red Sox vs RHP Juan Nicasio, and Rays vs LHP Mark Buerhle
5. Interesting Notes
- Matt Kemp OF LAD- should make his return to the lineup today vs LHP Mike Kickham, love this matchup if you are brave
- Aaron Hill 2B ARI – makes his return from the DL. He hit .375 and 6 RBIs during his 24 ABs on his Minor League rehab stint. He’s not cheap but has an interesting matchup vs the newly vulnerable LHP Gio Gonzalez.
- How the mighty have fallen. Starlin Castro SS CHC has seen his price drop all the way to the minimum on Fanduel. I wouldn’t use him today, but he deserves to be kept in the back of your mind or as a roster filler.
- Note for tomorrow- Jose Reyes SS TOR will be activated from the DL on Wednesday.
- The Yankees have scored the second lowest amount of runs (150), lowest AVG (.219), lowest OPS (.604) in the month of June.