5 Notes for the Afternoon Games
1. Stack against the young hurlers- The Braves will be facing RHP Tyler Chatwood in Colorado. Braves hit well in the cold yesterday, and it should be a smoldering 50 degrees today. The Braves have been a little hit or miss so far this year because most of their value is derived from the home run. I like Freddie Freeman especially. The Blue Jays get to face the Orioles rookie RHP Josh Stinson. I don’t know much about Stinson, but I’m pretty confident he won’t be able to silence the anemic bats of the Jays. The Blue Jays are a lot like the Angels in that they are going to hit eventually. It’s just a guessing game as to when.
2. Jon Lester LHP BOS vs OAK and Mat Latos RHP CIN vs CHC are my two favorite pitching plays of the day. These guys are not without their risks. Oakland has done well against lefties, and Latos’ game could get washed out. I also like the lefty hitters of the Cubs much more than their right-handed batters. With all that said, the rewards for both these guys far outweigh the risks.
3. Kyle Seager 2B/3B SEA @ HOU- Seager is riding a 12 game hit streak. He’s hitting .327 against RHP. Even though Harrell has done pretty well so far against LHB, he has given up four of his five home runs allowed to those batters. Seager still has decent value most places and should take advantage of this matchup today.
4. Anthony Rendon 3B STL and Brandon Laird 3B/1B are still $2,000 on DraftKings. He’s had some tough pitching to battle through in the early goings of his debut. Today should be a much more palatable matchup against LHP Jaime Garcia. I’m not saying Rendon will set the world on fire today, but he should be the most talented filler for a stack, period. Laird gets an awesome matchup versus LHP Joe Saunders. He’ll be batting third and get plenty of opportunities to drive in Altuve.
5. Jeff Samardzija is pitching better than his 3.38 ERA indicates. Jeff has a 10.46 K/9 rate, a pretty low BABIP .262, and sports a 2.69 xFIP. All those numbers mean he’s pitching better than his 3.38 ERA indicates. I don’t know if I have the guts to start him, but I would avoid the Reds hitters.
**Watch the weather for the Cubs/Reds game. It might be smarter to avoid this game altogether**