FantasySports.org » rotogrinders http://fantasysports.org A site dedicated to people who enjoy playing fantasy sports Thu, 11 Dec 2014 13:25:13 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.9.6 Reading the Industry: Fantasy Football for Smart People http://fantasysports.org/fantasy-football-smart-people-daily-fantasy-pros/ http://fantasysports.org/fantasy-football-smart-people-daily-fantasy-pros/#comments Tue, 02 Sep 2014 12:02:13 +0000 http://fantasysports.org/?p=4966 When Hollywood looks for its next blockbuster fantasy series to make into an ultra-high budget series, I’m hoping Jonathan Bales’ Fantasy Football for Smart People makes the cuts. His charts are going to look so cool. I saw ten different “Smart People” offerings on his Amazon page. Today’s review will be on his latest book, ...

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When Hollywood looks for its next blockbuster fantasy series to make into an ultra-high budget series, I’m hoping Jonathan Bales’ Fantasy Football for Smart People makes the cuts. His charts are going to look so cool. I saw ten different “Smart People” offerings on his Amazon page. Today’s review will be on his latest book, and we’ll give it a separate line due to its length:

Fantasy Football for Smart People: Daily Fantasy Pros Reveal Their Money-Making Secrets

ff-for-smart-daily

Check out a sample chapter.

I do an interview series in which the majority of the “talking” is by the experts themselves. Bales uses this theory in the book, handing over each chapter to a daily “grinder” who has won more money in fantasy football than I’ve ever seen. Let’s look at some of the chapters.

Chapter 1: Research with Headchopper

Wait a sec, who said anything about research? You mean I have to work to make money in daily fantasy? Nuts. What Mr. Chopper says is to use your tools, including the fantastic Rotogrinders site, Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders for stats, and NFL Game Rewind for film. What he likes to do is figure out his player values before going to the daily fantasy sites to view salaries.

Three great tidbits from Headchopper: He likes looking at the opposing secondary for QB value, yards per carry for RBs (sign of good OL), and red zone targets for wide receivers (TDs are important).

At the end of the each chapter, you get a little “bonus coverage” from “CSURams88″ aka Peter Jennings and of course, Mr. Bales and his charts.

Chapter 3: The Vegas Lines with Mirage88

It appears as if ’88 was a very good year for creating daily fantasy experts. If a daily expert wanted to create his/her own research from which to devise lineups, that’s possible. That’s also not optimal. Vegas sets lines based on a lot more smart people using a lot more data than we can fathom. Because of that, using Vegas lines to determine the best opportunities for scoring fantasy points is what you’re looking for. Look at the over/unders (the prediction about how many points will be scored in an NFL game), and you’ll see where your opportunities lie.

If you break down each NFL team, you can see what percentage of total QB targets each WR gets. After looking at the over/under, you can get a decent projection of what that receiver could score.

Determining when to go against the “chalk”, or the Vegas line, is where you potentially get in the most trouble but also can profit. Knowing when to be a contrarian is one of the most important decisions a fantasy player can make.

Chapter 5: Winning Cash Games with PrimeTime42

You may think that daily fantasy “winners” focus on tournaments because of the big money, but that’s a fallacy. A lot of daily fantasy winners focus on the “cash” games, which for the most part means the head-to-heads or 50/50s. Tournaments do have higher prizes, but the odds of winning are much lower.

PT42 recommends DraftKings’ “beginner-only” cash games to allow the newbies to get some experience. He also suggests that you get into some cheap 50/50s with experts to see what they do with their lineups. That’s one step to becoming an expert, seeing what the experts do.

Chapter 8: Building a Bankroll with KillaB2482

Have you noticed yet that daily experts spend a lot more time on research than coming up with handles? This guy focuses on the NFL (my kind of guy) who moved on from an Economics degree to play poker then focus on daily fantasy. There are some nice overlaps between poker and fantasy football.

You may think that it makes sense to play your entire bankroll every week, as the NFL season is short and we must make hay while the sun shines. Not so fast. If you have a bad week, and everyone has a bad week, you are now broke. The suggestion in this instance is a max of 20% a week. Only 3-4% is for tournaments versus “cash” games.

Throughout this book, a constant refrain is to play one lineup per site. You’re going to have a different “cash” lineup versus “tournament” lineup as you need a higher score to win a tournament due to the higher number of players. Another recommendation is to not put more than 60-70% of your weekly money into one player. You may have “a feeling” and the stats/salary may be in your favor, but if one player has one bad week, so do you.

I purposely didn’t summarize every chapter because it wouldn’t be nice of me to give you the entire book without enticing you to buy it on your own. There are lots of daily fantasy primers, but this one’s over and above the norm because we’re talking real advice from real winners. Naturally, where you take it is up to you.

Find the book on Amazon and do yourself a favor and follow Jonathan Bales on Twitter. You can also find Jonathan’s work at RotoAcademy and The DC Times.

For a more extended look at the book, I posted a sample chapter.

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The Daily MLB Fantasy Pulse- 5-1 http://fantasysports.org/the-daily-mlb-fantasy-pulse-5-1/ http://fantasysports.org/the-daily-mlb-fantasy-pulse-5-1/#comments Wed, 01 May 2013 15:56:11 +0000 http://www.fantasysports.org/?p=1939 Yesterday’s Studs Edwin Encarnacion- E5 is officially en fuego, a la NBA Jam. He has 5 homeruns in his last 5 games and hit another 2 last night. Ryan Raburn- For the season, Ryan Raburn has 4 home runs. All 4 of them have come in the last two games. Rickie Weeks- Not a more ...

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Daily-Fantasy-PulseYesterday’s Studs

Edwin Encarnacion- E5 is officially en fuego, a la NBA Jam. He has 5 homeruns in his last 5 games and hit another 2 last night.

Ryan Raburn- For the season, Ryan Raburn has 4 home runs. All 4 of them have come in the last two games.

Rickie Weeks- Not a more mercurial talent than Weeks in the whole sport, it seems like. Last night, against the Pirates, Weeks went 3 for 4 with a home run.

(Programming note: This version of the pulse is for late games only)

5/1 Pitchers

Cliff Lee- The only Cleveland Indian batters with solid BvP numbers versus Lee are Nick Swisher and Jason Giambi, two guys who just don’t frighten anyone anymore. Lee has had his struggle this year, but an Indian’s team that has shown widely variable performances this year seems like an opportune point for Lee to throw a gem.

Paul Maholm- His last outing was a disaster; there is no avoiding that. The Nationals as a team are hitting .234 for the season and they fare even worse against lefties. Bryce Harper is the one player who scores you with the lefty-rightie matchup, but in his careeer, Harper is 0-6 against Maholm.

5/1 Hitters

Paul Goldschmidt- Tim Lincecum is not his former self. Paul Goldschmidt gets better at hitting every single day and is the proud owner of a 2.303 OPS versus the Giants leftie. Goldschmidt will be in all my lineups and I would recommend fading Lincecum for the day.

Robinson Cano- The Yankees face Erik Bedard today, at Yankee stadium. Bedard owns a 15+ ERA and while the Yankees are certainly not the Yankees of old, they can still beat up on a bad pitcher and that is exactly what Bedard is. Start any Yankee that you want, but make sure to check Baseball Press before lineups lock. You never know who Giradi will throw out on a given day.

Chase Headley- Headley is the rare athlete who actually came back from injury and was ready to perform. Tonight, he draws a juicy matchup against the always terrible (unless he is facing the Marlins) Scott Feldman. Take advantage of the matchup and let Headley perform for your squad tonight.

Matt Joyce- Luis Mendoza just isn’t a very good pitcher. I desperately want him to be okay, but he just isn’t. Matt Joyce will get the start against the right handed pitcher tonight, and a home run is my baseline expectation for Joyce. He is 2-3 off of Mendoza in  his career and just has to add a homerun now.

 

Matt Kemp- This is it. The slump buster. I’m calling my shot right now. Kemp gets to face Juan Nicasio, at his home park. For his career, Kemp has hit a triple and a home run off of Nicasio, in only 11 at-bats. He is still dirt cheap many places. Don’t fade this opportunity.

Top 5 BvP Lines

BATTER AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Paul Goldschmidt  R 14 8 1 0 5 10 2 4 0 0 .571 .588 1.714 2.303
Jayson Werth  R 30 10 4 0 1 5 2 5 0 0 .333 .375 .567 .942
Matt Holliday  R 27 12 3 1 2 7 3 7 0 0 .444 .500 .852 1.352
David Wright  R 10 6 0 0 1 3 2 2 2 1 .600 .667 .900 1.567
Albert Pujols  R 11 7 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .636 .636 1.182 1.818

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