Five Notes for the Late Games
1. Starting Pitchers-
Clayton Kershaw LHP LAD @ SD has had some trouble with the Padres this year. In fact, the two starts he has against the Friars have been his worst two starts of the year. I think that changes today. The Dodgers are revamped with the emergence Yasiel Puig and the return of Hanley Ramirez. Look for Kershaw to be the best pitcher of the night, and I don’t think it will be that close.
If your budget won’t allow for the pricey Kershaw you can always look to a Seattle vs Oakland game especially when it’s a matchup of Bartolo Colon RHP OAK and Hisashi Iwakuma RHP SEA. Last time these two faced off, Colon came out on top. I don’t know who will emerge as the dominant one, but I bet it will be low scoring. Vegas has the points at +6.5 which is about a low scoring projection as it gets.
If you are still wanting to go cheaper than that, look no further than Julio Teheran RHP ATL @ MIL. If you have seen my twitter feed (@pritchettclan), then you would know that I have scouted the last couple of Teheran starts. In Teheran’s last start he was thrilling to watch, circa Pedro Martinez. Fastball was exploding at 95 MPH and he was locating his plus change up perfectly.
If we see that Teheran, the Brewers have no chance.
My high risk/high reward guys for tonight are Hector Santiago LHP CHW @ KC and Scott Kazmir LHP CLE vs MIN. To save you the sabermetrics lesson, both Santiago and Kazmir have been unlucky in 2013. Both should provide decent K rates against pretty bad offenses. If they can keep runners off base and avoid high pitch counts (big if’s) than they should produce results well worth their cheap price tags.
2. Stud Hitters
- Carlos Santana C CLE (love this play in a thin position)
- Brian McCann C ATL (LHB mash RHP Wily Peralta),
- Freddie Freeman 1B ATL (he’s been clutch, and I think he’s a lock for XBHs today)
- Chris Davis 1B/OF BAL (I told you guys this new approach at the plate is going to make him an MVP candidate, and it has. Perfect chance for a fat pitch or two if Dickey is off his game)
- Jason Kipnis 2B CLE (doesn’t get much better than Kipnis vs a RHP these days)
- Robinson Cano 2B NYY (RHP Hernandez can get hit around by LHB and Cano is due for a HR)
- Adrian Beltre 3B TEX
- Manny Machado 3B BAL (riding the stack, and auto-Double Machado has hit better vs RHP that LHP so far), Hanley Ramirez SS/3B (Hanley is 3B most place, I don’t like the SS options today so I’d go cheap at SS today like Hardy or Simmons)
- Yasiel Puig OF LAD (dude is unreal and for real all wrapped up in a lovely masterpiece, he’s still reasonably price on FD at $3,700)
- Domonic Brown OF PHI (sneaky HR play tonight vs RHP Hefner, high risk play though), Matt Joyce OF TB (seems like a must play when facing RHP like David Phelps)
- Nelson Cruz OF TEX (facing a rookie LHP in Tyler Lyons).
3. Value Hitters
- Hank Conger C LAA - **next level alert** Conger has hit safely 16 out of the 19 games this season when he gets a minimum of 3 at bats, he also has all his HRs and RBIs in those games against RHP, so if he starts against RHP Gerrit Cole tonight, he could be a sneaky play on most sites
- Adam LaRoche 1B WAS - 3,200 on FD, heating back up and facing a RHP Chatwood
- Lyle Overbay 1B NYY - 3 XBH in last four games, facing RHP Hernandez
- Brian Dozier 2B MIN - $2,700 on FD, HR’d in 3 of last 4 games and LHP Kazmir has been giving up the HR at career high levels
- Conor Gillaspie 3B CHW - Guthrie can struggle vs LHB and Gillaspie is 4 for last 12 with 2 XBH, sneaky 2,400 on FD
- Lonnie Chisenhall 3B CLE - 2,500 on FD, and I like his chances to have a good game here vs RHP Deduno
- Andrelton Simmons SS ATL - criminally underpriced on FD at $2,300
- Michael Brantley OF CLE - hit 2 HRs in last game and hits near .300 vs RHP, could be another good game for him and all Indians
- Andre Ethier OF LAD – call me crazy but I think with Ethier swinging such a hot bat lately, .433 over last 8 games, I would still give him a look vs a LHP as bad as Richard, especially with a price tag of $2,600 on FD
- Jason Heyward OF ATL - 3,000 on FD, love the play vs RHP Peralta who is just bad facing LHB
4. Stack ‘em Up
- Braves @ RHP Wily Peralta
- Indians vs RHP Samuel Deduno
- Dodgers @ LHP Clayton Richard
- Orioles @ RHP R.A. Dickey
- Rangers @ LHP Tyler Lyons
I have two really good Fanduel lineups that I’m not going to give you guys. Sorry but I want to go to Vegas too. I gave you my research, you can fill in the blanks yourself. Instead, I will give you advice. I haven’t been very successful in GPP for MLB, but I know what people are doing that have been successful. Think outside of the box. Socrdave took down the DFBC qualifier by running Cubs out there against Wainwright. Nobody else did that, and now David is going to Vegas. On sites where there are stacking restrictions use mini-stacks. Obvious plays will be played by everybody so you have to understand that you will not differentiate yourself by your easy calls. However, you can put yourself at a disadvantage if you don’t take note of extreme misses in pricing. Every site has them. Don’t be caught outside without your umbrella. With that said, you will win GPPs based on your under the radar picks. Get creative! Look at a guy like Andre Ethier. I guarantee people will not look to use him because of the L/L matchup. Ethier is awful against LHP, and Richard isn’t bad against LHB. There is that slight chance that the hot bat of Ethier will still be able to punish Richard’s soft-tossing pitches. These are the plays that separate winning from losing in guaranteed prize pools. Hope you put this strategy to work, and you all do well today. Good luck. Line ups will be back in the next MLB Fives.